Programming Deflation

How AI-cheaper code affects programmer demand and software economics

Programming deflation—driven by AI tools making code cheaper to produce—creates a paradox: substitution suggests fewer programmers needed, while Jevons' paradox predicts increased demand. Unlike destructive economic deflation, this productivity-driven deflation may accelerate innovation. The real shift isn't in coding volume but in where value concentrates: understanding systems, integration, and judgment over raw code production.

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Questions this essay answers

  • Will AI reduce the number of programmers we need, or increase it?
  • Should we delay building software waiting for cheaper tools, or experiment now?
  • What skills stay valuable when code becomes a commodity?
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